With a UK election date now set for 12 December, headlines about opinion polls are coming thick and fast. However, recent elections have important lessons for. Studies of election polls, in Britain and elsewhere, typically focus on the accuracy of the polls. This chapter does something quite new: it takes. I'm Mark Pack, author of both Ways To Win An Election and Bad News: what the headlines don't tell us, along with maintaining the largest database of.
UK election: A Tory win might be good for UK equities, but just for ChristmasThe forthcoming UK election remains hard to call, despite polls indicating a clear Tory majority. This is partly because recent experience tells us that the polls. The Greens achieved a % share, with the Conservatives and Labour polling % and % respectively. Mr Farage said: "Never. English: Graph of YouGov Polling data for the UK General Election from 6 April on. Deutsch: Meinungsumfrage-Ergebnisse von YouGov vor der britischen.
Uk Election Polls Advertisement VideoHas Boris won a majority? - Election 2019 - BBC I'm Mark Pack, author of both Ways To Win An Election and Bad News: what the headlines don't tell us, along with maintaining the largest database of. With a UK election date now set for 12 December, headlines about opinion polls are coming thick and fast. However, recent elections have important lessons for. With less than three days to go until Britain holds a national election, opinion polls suggest Prime Minister Theresa May's lead over the opposition Labour party. British Prime Minister Theresa May maintained her strong lead in opinion polls ahead of next month's national election, with one analyst saying she was on.
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The table above includes the latest UK or British voting intention poll from each of the currently active reputable pollsters. Anthony Wells explains here in more detail what this margin of error calculation means, and why it does not strictly apply to modern polls.
Based on the historic record of polls, the British Polling Council requires its members to use this explanation of the margin of error:.
The deadline for candidate nominations was 14 November ,  with political campaigning for four weeks until polling day on 12 December.
On the day of the election, polling stations across the country were open from 7 am, and closed at 10 pm.
Individuals eligible to vote had to be registered to vote by midnight on 26 November. Most candidates are representatives of a political party , which must be registered with the Electoral Commission's Register of Political Parties.
Candidates who do not belong to a registered party can use an "independent" label, or no label at all. Across the United Kingdom, there were 3, candidates representing 68 political parties, including independent candidates.
Major parties parties with multiple MPs at dissolution or those that had multiple MEPs prior to the UK's departure from the EU that contested this election in Great Britain are shown in the table below with their results at the general election , ordered by the number of seats they won.
As outlined above, the Conservative Party has governed in coalition or on its own since , and has been led by Boris Johnson since July Jeremy Corbyn had been Labour Party leader since and was the first Labour leader since Tony Blair to contest consecutive general elections, as well as the first since Neil Kinnock to contest a second general election after losing the first.
One other party, the Liberal Democrats, contested seats across Great Britain. They were led by Tim Farron at the election, before he was replaced by Vince Cable.
Cable was succeeded by Jo Swinson in July The two parties stood in a total of seats. The third-largest party in seats won at the election was the Scottish National Party , led by Nicola Sturgeon since , which stands only in Scotland but holds the majority 35 of 59 before this election of seats there.
While a number of UK parties organise in Northern Ireland including the Labour Party , which does not field candidates and others field candidates for election most notably the Conservatives , the main Northern Ireland parties are different from those in the rest of the UK.
The only independent elected to Parliament in , Sylvia Hermon , represented North Down but did not stand in In the election, there were a total of candidates in Northern Ireland.
Labour declined to be involved. This agreement meant that in 60 constituencies only one of these parties, the one considered to have the best chance of winning, stood.
This pact aimed to maximise the total number of anti-Brexit MPs returned under the first-past-the-post system by avoiding the spoiler effect.
The Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage had suggested the Brexit and Conservative parties could form an electoral pact to maximise the seats taken by Brexit-supporting MPs, but this was rejected by Johnson.
This was welcomed by the Conservative Party chairman James Cleverly , and he insisted there had been no contact between them and the Brexit Party over the plan.
Johnson did make a statement covering these two issues, something which Farage referenced as key when announcing he was standing down some candidates.
Both the Brexit Party and the Conservatives denied any deal was done between the two. Other parties stood down in selected seats so as not to split the anti-Brexit vote.
Alliance did not stand down in any seats,  describing the plans as "sectarian". The Parliament was defined by a significant amount of political instability, and consequently; a large number of defections and switching between parties.
This was due to issues such as disquiet over anti-semitism in the Labour Party , and divisions over Brexit in the Conservative Party.
Eighteen MPs elected in contested the election for a different party or as an independent candidate; five stood for a different seat. All of these candidates failed to be re-elected.
The following candidates withdrew from campaigning or had support from their party withdrawn after the close of nominations, and so they remained on the ballot paper in their constituency.
Hanvey was elected;  the others were not. The Conservative Party and Labour Party have been the two biggest political parties, and have supplied every Prime Minister since The Conservative Party have governed since the election , in coalition with the Liberal Democrats from to At the general election the Conservative Party committed to offering a referendum on whether the UK should leave the European Union and won a majority in that election.
A referendum was held in June , and the Leave campaign won by The UK initiated the withdrawal process in March , and Prime Minister Theresa May triggered a snap general election in , in order to demonstrate support for her planned negotiation of Brexit.
The Conservative Party lost seats — they won a plurality of MPs, but not a majority. As a result, they formed a minority government, with the Democratic Unionist Party DUP as their confidence and supply partner.
Neither May nor her successor Boris Johnson winner of the Conservative Party leadership election   was able to secure parliamentary support either for a deal on the terms of the UK's exit from the EU, or for exiting the EU without an agreed deal.
Johnson later succeeded in bringing his Withdrawal Agreement to a second reading in Parliament, following another extension until January During the lifespan of the parliament, twenty MPs quit their parties, most due to disputes with their party leaderships; some formed new parties and alliances.
Seven MPs, from both the Conservatives and Labour, joined the Liberal Democrats during the parliament, in combination with a by-election gain. The Lib Dems ultimately raised their number from 12 at the election to 20 at dissolution.
One reason for the defections from the Labour Party was the ongoing row over antisemitism in the Labour Party.
Labour entered the election campaign while under investigation by the Equality and Human Rights Commission. The Conservatives ended the previous parliamentary period with fewer seats than they had started with because of defections and also the expulsion of a number of MPs for going against the party line by voting to prevent a no-deal Brexit.
The major parties had a wide variety of stances on Brexit. The Conservative Party supported leaving under the terms of the withdrawal agreement as negotiated by Johnson amending Theresa May's previous agreement , and this agreement formed a central part of the Conservative campaign.
The Labour Party proposed a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement towards a closer post-withdrawal relationship with the EU and would then put this forward as an option in a referendum alongside the option of remaining in the EU.
The Democratic Unionist Party DUP was in favour of a withdrawal agreement in principle, but it opposed the deals negotiated by both May and Johnson, believing that they create too great a divide between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
The UUP did not see a second referendum as a necessary route to achieving this goal. The Labour Party promised what they described as a green industrial revolution.
This included support for renewable energies and a promise to plant 2 billion trees by The party also promised to transition to electrify the UK's bus fleet by The Lib Dems also promised to put the environment at the heart of their agenda with a promise to plant 60 million trees a year.
They also promised to significantly reduce carbon emissions by and hit zero carbon emissions by They also promised to build more environmentally friendly homes and to establish a new Department for the Climate Crisis.
The Conservatives pledged net zero emissions by with investment in clean energy solutions and green infrastructure to reduce carbon emissions and pollution.
They also pledged to plant 30 million trees. The Conservatives were judged the worst of the main parties on climate change by Friends of the Earth with a manifesto which mentioned it only ten times.
Chancellor Sajid Javid said the government had turned the page on 10 years of austerity. The Conservative manifesto was described as having "little in the way of changes to tax" by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
In addition, Labour was to obtain income from the Inclusive Ownership Fund, windfall tax on oil companies, and some smaller tax changes. The Institute of Fiscal Studies IFS , an influential research body, released on 28 November its in-depth analysis of the manifestos of the three main national political parties.
The analysis both provides a summary of the financial promises made by each party, and an inspection of the accuracy of claims around government income and expenditure.
Its analysis of the Conservative manifesto concluded there was "essentially nothing new in the manifesto", that there was "little in the way of changes to tax, spending, welfare or anything else", and that they had already promised increased spending for health and education whilst in government.
The Labour manifesto was described as introducing "enormous economic and social change", and increasing the role of the state to be bigger than anything in the last 40 years.
Labour's vision, the IFS said, "is of a state not so dissimilar to those seen in many other successful Western European economies" and presumed that the manifesto should be seen as "a long-term prospectus for change rather than a realistic deliverable plan for a five-year parliament".
The Conservative manifesto was criticised for a commitment not to raise rates of income tax, NICs or VAT as this put a significant constraint on reactions to events that might affect government finances.
One such event could be the "die in a ditch" promise to terminate the Brexit transition period by the end of , which risked harming the economy.
The IFS stated it had "serious doubt" that tax rises proposed would raise the amount Labour suggested, and said that they would need to introduce more broad based tax increases.
They assess that the public sector does not have the capacity to increase investment spending as Labour would want.
Some of Labour's proposals are described as "huge and complex undertakings", where significant care is required in implementation.
They said that Labour's manifesto would not increase UK public spending as a share of national income above Germany.
The IFS described the Liberal Democrats' plans as a "radical" tax and spend package, and said that the proposals would require lower borrowing than Conservative or Labour plans.
The report said they were the only party whose proposals would put debt "on a decisively downward path", praising their plan to put 1p on income tax to go to the NHS as "simple, progressive and would raise a secure level of revenue".
The IFS also said plans to "virtually quintuple" current spending levels on universal free childcare amounted to "creating a whole new leg of the universal welfare state".
Their proposals on spending increases and tax cuts would mean the UK government would have to borrow to cover day-to-day spending.
They conclude that the SNP's plans for Scottish independence would likely require increased austerity.
They proposed more funding for care services and to work with other parties on reforming how care is delivered. They wish to maintain the "triple lock" on pensions.
They proposed investing in local infrastructure, including building a new rail line between Leeds and Manchester.
Labour proposed nationalising part of BT and to provide free broadband to everyone,  along with free education for six years during each person's adult life.
The Liberal Democrats' main priority was opposing Brexit. The Brexit Party was also focused on Brexit. It opposed privatising the NHS.
It sought to reduce immigration, cutting net migration to 50, per year; cutting VAT on domestic fuel; banning the exporting of waste; free broadband in deprived regions; scrapping the BBC licence fee; and abolishing inheritance tax, interest on student loans, and HS2.
It also wanted to move to a US-style supreme court. The policies of the SNP included a second referendum on Scottish independence next year as well as one on Brexit, removing Trident, and devolution across issues such as employment law, drug policy, and migration.
The Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Labour all support a ban on fracking , whilst the Conservatives propose approving fracking on a case-by-case basis.
The Conservatives and Labour both insisted they were on course for outright majorities, but smaller parties were quizzed about what they would do in the event of a hung Parliament.
The Liberal Democrats said they would not actively support Johnson or Corbyn becoming Prime Minister, but that they could, if an alternative could not be achieved, abstain on votes allowing a minority government to form if there was support for a second referendum on Brexit.
The DUP previously supported the Conservative government, but withdrew that support given their opposition to Johnson's proposed Brexit deal.
It said it would never support Corbyn as prime minister, but could work with Labour if that party were led by someone else.
Labour's position on a hung parliament was that it would do no deals with any other party, citing Corbyn to say "We are out here to win it"—although sources say it was prepared to adopt key policies proposed by the SNP and Lib Dems to woo them into supporting a minority government.
Their focus would be on remaining in the EU. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system, voter turn-out especially in marginal seats has a crucial impact on the final election outcome [ citation needed ] , so major political parties disproportionately focus on opinion poll trends and these constituencies.
In the early stages of the campaign, there was considerable discussion of tactical voting generally in the context of support or opposition to Brexit and whether parties would stand in all seats or not.
The Brexit Party chose not to stand against sitting Conservative candidates, but stood in most other constituencies. The Brexit Party alleged that pressure was put on its candidates by the Conservatives to withdraw, including the offer of peerages, which would be illegal.
This was denied by the Conservative Party. A number of tactical voting websites were set up in an attempt to help voters choose the candidate in their constituency who would be best placed to beat the Conservative one.
This caused a lot of negative press for tactical voting [ citation needed ] as it was reported that the sites did not match one another's advice.
Further into the election period, tactical voting websites that relied on MRP changed their recommendations on other seats because of new data.
Shortly before the election The Observer newspaper recommended remainers tactically vote for 50 labour, liberal democrat, Scottish national and independent candidates across Great Britain of these 13 triumphed, 9 of which were SNP gains in Scotland in line with a broader trend of relative success for the party along with four in England divided equally between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
The pollster responsible argued in the aftermath that the unpopularity of the labour leadership limited the effectiveness of tactical voting.
Predictions of an overall Conservative majority were based on their targeting of primarily Labour-held, Brexit-backing seats in the Midlands and the north of England.
Momentum also developed an app called My Campaign Map that updated members about where they could be more effective, particularly in canvassing in marginal constituencies.
Over one weekend during the campaign period, Labour supporters campaigned in Iain Duncan Smith 's constituency, Chingford and Woodford Green , which was regarded as a marginal, with a majority of 2, votes at the general election.
We should not put too much confidence on whether the Conservatives are doing a couple of percentage points better or worse in an area based on a single poll.
Are there different patterns at work in those traditional marginal seats to those former mining and industrial seats that have been part of the bigger red-wall sea-change.
The question people tend to ask on the back of polls like this is whether the Tories need to worry unduly about keeping these seats in their column, and whether Labour can win them back.
In that context, it is probably too simplistic to look at them as a single lump. These are marginal seats, elections will be always be won and lost in the marginal seats.
It may be that the more vulnerable Tory seats next time round are actually some more affluent seats with high proportions of graduates.
The pattern of key marginals next time round could be those that are similar to North West Bristol or Canterbury, rather than winning back old mining seats.
There are risks and opportunities elsewhere too. While there will always be some volatility in individual polls, looking at the average across all of the polling companies it now looks as if Labour have moved into a small lead.
Back in the summer the Conservatives had a consistent lead averaging around five or six points — since then Labour have been chipping away at it.
Does it matter? In a predictive sense of course not — there are years until MPs have to face the electorate.
Equally, it weakens Boris Johnson if he is no longer seen as a popular election winner, something that was once his main selling point to the Tory party.
World US Opinion Polls. ObamaCare support back at record high: Gallup The Hill Immigration a top issue for voters ahead of Georgia runoffs Washington Examiner Note : General Elections are scheduled to be held approximately every 5 years under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act FTPA , but it is possible for an early general election to take place.
We will refer to the election as if it were to take place 5 years after the last one unless it becomes clear that an early general election will happen.
The Independent. Retrieved 29 December The act specifies that future elections will be held on the first Thursday of May, every five years.
The Spectator. Retrieved 30 January The Constitution Unit. BBC News.